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Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

Atletico San Luis

PPG 0.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CF Pachuca

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.9%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.3%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 29.4% 3.40 +32.6%

Draw 25.9% 29.4% 3.40 -7.2%

Away win 35.0% 46.5% 2.15 -24.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.2% 2.62 -0.7%

Away O1.5 38.9% 50.0% 2.00 -22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico San Luis1.4

CF Pachuca1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO SAN LUIS · PPG 0.90

CF PACHUCA · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico San Luis (H) 39.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +32.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.2%

CF Pachuca (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico San Luis face CF Pachuca in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico San Luis a 39% chance, the draw 26% and CF Pachuca 35%, so Atletico San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atletico San Luis and 1.3 for CF Pachuca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico San Luis are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.43 for CF Pachuca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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