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Atlas vs Club Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Atlas

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Club Queretaro

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.3%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.8%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 47.2% 2.12 +9.0%

Draw 24.4% 29.9% 3.35 -11.0%

Away win 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Over 2.5 51.4% 54.1% 1.85 -4.9%

Over 3.5 30.6% 30.8% 3.25 -0.5%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

Away O1.5 26.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas1.6

Club Queretaro1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS · PPG 1.53

CLUB QUERETARO · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +9.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.0%

Club Queretaro (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas face Club Queretaro in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Club Queretaro 24%, so Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlas and 1.0 for Club Queretaro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.33 for Club Queretaro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Atlas vs Club Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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