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Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 00:00

Toluca

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FC Juarez

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-17.0%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-19.1%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.8%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-19.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% 78.1% 1.28 -9.5%

Draw 16.0% 16.9% 5.90 -3.4%

Away win 13.4% 11.8% 8.50 +8.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 72.5% 1.38 -10.3%

Over 3.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

BTTS 53.3% 58.8% 1.70 -9.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 80.0% 1.25 -17.1%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.3% 3.80 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.3%

H 71% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca2.6

FC Juarez0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA · PPG 1.80

FC JUAREZ · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 1.80 vs 0.82 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Toluca (H) 70.7%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -9.5%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -3.4%

FC Juarez (A) 13.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca face FC Juarez in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca a 71% chance, the draw 16% and FC Juarez 13%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Toluca and 0.8 for FC Juarez (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.82 for FC Juarez. This match finished 4-0.

Toluca vs FC Juarez Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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