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Club America vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:05

Club America

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Puebla

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.2%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-19.1%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 69.4% 1.44 -17.8%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 21.2% 20.0% 5.00 +3.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 54.3% 58.8% 1.70 -7.7%

Home O1.5 60.7% 66.7% 1.50 -8.9%

Away O1.5 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0✓ 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club America2.1

Puebla0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB AMERICA · PPG 2.16

PUEBLA · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club America (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Puebla (A) 21.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club America face Puebla in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club America a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Puebla 21%, so Club America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Club America and 0.8 for Puebla (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club America are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.29 for Puebla. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Club America vs Puebla Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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