Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL

Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 03:10

Santos Laguna

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tigres UANL

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.3%0-25.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.2%1-111.4%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.3%3-14.6%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 26.3% 3.80 +49.3%

Draw 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Away win 36.1% 57.8% 1.73 -37.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

BTTS 60.1% 61.7% 1.62 -2.6%

Home O1.5 44.8% 33.3% 3.00 +34.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 59.9% 1.67 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.1%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna1.6

Tigres UANL1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 1.09

TIGRES UANL · PPG 0.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna (H) 39.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +49.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Tigres UANL (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna face Tigres UANL in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 36%, so Santos Laguna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Santos Laguna and 1.4 for Tigres UANL (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.87 for Tigres UANL. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +68.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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