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Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 01:00

Necaxa

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cruz Azul

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.9%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.9%1-110.5%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.6%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 29.9% 3.35 +56.8%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 29.5% 50.0% 2.00 -24.6%

Over 2.5 60.8% 58.8% 1.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 37.9% 35.7% 2.80 +6.1%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 38.5% 2.60 +27.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.1% 1.85 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa1.8

Cruz Azul1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA · PPG 1.63

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 1.65

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa (H) 46.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +56.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Cruz Azul (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa face Cruz Azul in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul 30%, so Necaxa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Necaxa and 1.3 for Cruz Azul (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.65 for Cruz Azul. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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