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Puebla vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00

Puebla

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Santos Laguna

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.7%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.3%3-16.8%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 50.0% 2.00 +11.8%

Draw 22.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.0%

Away win 21.9% 33.3% 3.00 -20.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 38.2% 2.62 -4.1%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Away O1.5 25.1% 40.0% 2.50 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla2.1

Santos Laguna0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA · PPG 1.11

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 0.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Puebla (H) 55.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.0%

Santos Laguna (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla face Santos Laguna in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Santos Laguna 22%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Puebla and 0.9 for Santos Laguna (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.54 for Santos Laguna. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Puebla vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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