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Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 03:10

Club Tijuana

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.8%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.0%1-111.5%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 44.4% 2.25 +7.1%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 27.5% 33.9% 2.95 -11.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 53.4% 58.8% 1.70 -9.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Away O1.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Tijuana1.7

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB TIJUANA · PPG 2.22

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 1.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Tijuana (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +7.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Tijuana face U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Tijuana a 48% chance, the draw 25% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 28%, so Club Tijuana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Club Tijuana and 1.0 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Tijuana are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.94 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Club Tijuana vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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