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Leon vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 01:00

Leon

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Monterrey

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.5%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.5%1-110.4%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.8%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 32.3% 3.10 +9.4%

Draw 23.7% 27.0% 3.70 -7.4%

Away win 41.0% 47.6% 2.10 -13.9%

Over 2.5 62.6% 61.7% 1.62 +1.4%

Over 3.5 38.7% 39.2% 2.55 -1.3%

BTTS 61.3% 65.4% 1.53 -6.2%

Home O1.5 47.4% 43.5% 2.30 +9.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leon1.6

Monterrey1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEON · PPG 1.46

MONTERREY · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leon (H) 35.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.4%

Monterrey (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leon face Monterrey in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leon a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Monterrey 41%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Leon and 1.6 for Monterrey (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leon are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.32 for Monterrey. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Leon vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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