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Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 03:10

Club Queretaro

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Toluca

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.6%0-26.5%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.8%2-17.6%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 25.6% 3.90 +49.4%

Draw 26.9% 26.0% 3.85 +2.1%

Away win 34.7% 55.2% 1.81 -37.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 63.7% 1.57 -21.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 41.7% 2.40 -19.5%

BTTS 53.0% 65.4% 1.53 -18.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 60.6% 1.65 -41.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 38% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Queretaro1.1

Toluca1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB QUERETARO · PPG 1.51

TOLUCA · PPG 1.65

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.02, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Queretaro (H) 38.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +49.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.1%

Toluca (A) 34.7%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro face Toluca in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Queretaro a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Toluca 35%, so Club Queretaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Club Queretaro and 1.1 for Toluca (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Queretaro are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.65 for Toluca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Club Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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