Today / Mexico - Liga MX / FC Juarez vs Club America

FC Juarez vs Club America Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 03:10

FC Juarez

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Club America

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.4%0-29.9%0-36.3%0-4+4.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.8%2-15.3%2-25.0%2-33.2%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -8.6%

Draw 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Away win 56.8% 55.2% 1.81 +2.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 35.7% 2.80 +2.5%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%

Away O1.5 55.2% 56.5% 1.77 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.7%

A 57% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2✓ 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Juarez1.0

Club America1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JUAREZ · PPG 1.06

CLUB AMERICA · PPG 1.58

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Juarez (H) 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Club America (A) 56.8%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Juarez face Club America in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Juarez a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Club America 57%, so Club America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Juarez and 1.9 for Club America (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Juarez are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.58 for Club America. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Juarez vs Club America Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Predictions