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Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 02:10

Monterrey

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Atletico San Luis

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.6%1-24.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-17.8%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-18.7%4+-24.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 63.3% 1.58 +1.1%

Draw 18.6% 23.8% 4.20 -13.1%

Away win 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 64.4% 64.5% 1.55 -0.2%

Over 3.5 44.5% 42.6% 2.35 +4.6%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 66.7% 1.50 -0.5%

Away O1.5 32.4% 33.3% 3.00 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 64% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterrey2.5

Atletico San Luis1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTERREY · PPG 2.06

ATLETICO SAN LUIS · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Monterrey (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV +1.1%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.1%

Atletico San Luis (A) 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey face Atletico San Luis in Mexico - Liga MX on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Atletico San Luis 17%, so Monterrey are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Monterrey and 1.0 for Atletico San Luis (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.07 for Atletico San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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