First League

MACEDONIA · 26 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 25 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 25 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

52.0%

1X2

13/25

48.0%

O/U 2.5

12/25

48.0%

BTTS

12/25

32.0%

Exact score

8/25

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

61.5%

Hit rate

8/13

1.71

Avg odds

+6.8%

ROI

+0.9u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -32.0% ROI

BTTS · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +39.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.76 · +76.5% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.13 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-20.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-12.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

63%

Hit

+6.6%

ROI

Match log

25 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS

25 MAY Rabotnicki vs Tikves BTTS 1–3 HIT 25 MAY Makedonija vs Sileks Over 2.5 4–2 HIT 24 MAY Pelister vs Bashkimi BTTS -8% 1–0 MISS 23 MAY Aresimi vs Struga Over 2.5 1–0 MISS 16 MAY Bashkimi vs Makedonija BTTS -10% 3–3 HIT 16 MAY Tikves vs Pelister BTTS -7% 2–2 HIT 16 MAY Shkupi vs Rabotnicki Away 0–7 HIT 15 MAY Sileks vs Aresimi Over 2.5 0–1 MISS 10 MAY Aresimi vs Bashkimi Over 2.5 +4% 1–1 MISS 10 MAY Makedonija vs Tikves Over 2.5 +7% 1–4 HIT 3 MAY Tikves vs Aresimi BTTS +15% 1–1 HIT 2 MAY Bashkimi vs Vardar Away 0–0 MISS 2 MAY Rabotnicki vs Pelister BTTS -4% 3–3 HIT 1 MAY Sileks vs Shkendija BTTS 1–1 HIT 1 MAY Shkupi vs Makedonija Over 2.5 0–4 HIT