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Sileks vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Friday, August 28, 2026, 14:00

Sileks

PPG 2.05 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Shkendija

PPG 2.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.9%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-111.0%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 37.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.8% — — —

Over 3.5 37.1% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 47.8% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sileks1.6

Shkendija1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SILEKS · PPG 2.05

SHKENDIJA · PPG 2.16

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sileks (H) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shkendija (A) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sileks face Shkendija in Macedonia - First League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sileks a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Shkendija 37%, so Sileks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sileks and 1.5 for Shkendija (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sileks are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 2.16 for Shkendija. This match finished 0-2.

Sileks vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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