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Aresimi vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:30

Aresimi

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bashkimi Kumanovo

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.4%1-17.3%1-24.9%1-32.2%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.4%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-18.3%4+-25.6%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aresimi2.5

Bashkimi Kumanovo1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARESIMI · PPG 1.54

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aresimi (H) 55.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bashkimi Kumanovo (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aresimi face Bashkimi Kumanovo in Macedonia - First League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aresimi a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Bashkimi Kumanovo 23%, so Aresimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Aresimi and 1.4 for Bashkimi Kumanovo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aresimi are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.08 for Bashkimi Kumanovo.

Aresimi vs Bashkimi Kumanovo Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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