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Tikves vs Pelister Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Tikves

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pelister

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.4%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 32.3% 3.10 +55.9%

Draw 25.4% 29.4% 3.40 -8.2%

Away win 24.3% 48.8% 2.05 -30.1%

Over 2.5 53.3% 54.1% 1.85 -1.4%

Over 3.5 31.8% 30.8% 3.25 +3.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tikves1.7

Pelister1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TIKVES · PPG 1.31

PELISTER · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Tikves (H) 50.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +55.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.2%

Pelister (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tikves face Pelister in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tikves a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Pelister 24%, so Tikves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tikves and 1.2 for Pelister (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tikves are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.94 for Pelister. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Tikves vs Pelister Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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