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Struga vs Vardar Skopje Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Struga

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vardar Skopje

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.3%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.3%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 52.9% — — —

Over 3.5 30.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Struga1.5

Vardar Skopje1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STRUGA · PPG 1.86

VARDAR SKOPJE · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Struga (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vardar Skopje (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Struga face Vardar Skopje in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Struga a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Vardar Skopje 28%, so Struga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Struga and 1.1 for Vardar Skopje (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Struga are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.11 for Vardar Skopje.

Struga vs Vardar Skopje Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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