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Pelister vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:30

Pelister

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bashkimi

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.6%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.0%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 67.6% 1.48 -27.5%

Draw 26.1% 25.6% 3.90 +1.1%

Away win 24.9% 16.7% 6.00 +29.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 27.7% 37.0% 2.70 -15.1%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0✓ 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pelister1.6

Bashkimi1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PELISTER · PPG 1.40

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Pelister (H) 49.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -27.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.1%

Bashkimi (A) 24.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pelister face Bashkimi in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pelister a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Bashkimi 25%, so Pelister are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pelister and 1.1 for Bashkimi (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pelister are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.27 for Bashkimi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Pelister vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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