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Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Vardar Skopje

PPG 2.41 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shkendija

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.2%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.8%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.2%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 33.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vardar Skopje1.6

Shkendija1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VARDAR SKOPJE · PPG 2.41

SHKENDIJA · PPG 1.99

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vardar Skopje (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shkendija (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vardar Skopje face Shkendija in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vardar Skopje a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Shkendija 24%, so Vardar Skopje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vardar Skopje and 1.1 for Shkendija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vardar Skopje are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.99 for Shkendija. This match finished 0-2.

Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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