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Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Monday, August 31, 2026, 15:00

Tikveš

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vardar Skopje

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 30.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.6% — — —

Over 3.5 35.9% — — —

BTTS 59.0% — — —

Home O1.5 47.6% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tikveš1.6

Vardar Skopje1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TIKVEŠ · PPG 1.40

VARDAR SKOPJE · PPG 1.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tikveš (H) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vardar Skopje (A) 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tikveš face Vardar Skopje in Macedonia - First League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tikveš a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Vardar Skopje 30%, so Tikveš are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tikveš and 1.3 for Vardar Skopje (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tikveš are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.76 for Vardar Skopje. This match finished 1-1.

Tikveš vs Vardar Skopje Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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