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Vardar Skopje vs Sileks Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 15:00

Vardar Skopje

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sileks

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.6%0-25.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 60.6% 1.65 -39.6%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 38.6% 22.2% 4.50 +73.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 52.6% 1.90 +1.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 56.5% 1.77 -29.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 27.8% 3.60 +31.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vardar Skopje1.4

Sileks1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VARDAR SKOPJE · PPG 2.01

SILEKS · PPG 1.32

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vardar Skopje (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -39.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

Sileks (A) 38.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +73.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vardar Skopje face Sileks in Macedonia - First League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vardar Skopje a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Sileks 39%, so Sileks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vardar Skopje and 1.3 for Sileks (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vardar Skopje are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.32 for Sileks. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Vardar Skopje vs Sileks Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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