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Bashkimi vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Bashkimi

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Makedonija

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.9%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.0%1-27.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.0%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 60.6% 1.65 -20.5%

Draw 26.0% 27.4% 3.65 -3.1%

Away win 25.8% 22.2% 4.50 +9.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Over 3.5 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

BTTS 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bashkimi1.5

Makedonija1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.38

MAKEDONIJA · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Bashkimi (H) 48.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -20.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.1%

Makedonija (A) 25.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bashkimi face Makedonija in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bashkimi a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Makedonija 26%, so Bashkimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bashkimi and 1.2 for Makedonija (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bashkimi are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.69 for Makedonija. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Bashkimi vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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