Today / Macedonia - First League / Aresimi vs Struga

Aresimi vs Struga Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Aresimi

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Struga

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.9%0-29.2%0-36.4%0-4+5.4%1 1-04.6%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.5%2-15.1%2-25.3%2-33.7%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.9%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 54.6% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 55% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aresimi1.1

Struga2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARESIMI · PPG 1.47

STRUGA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Aresimi (H) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Struga (A) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aresimi face Struga in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aresimi a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Struga 55%, so Struga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Aresimi and 2.1 for Struga (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aresimi are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.20 for Struga. This match finished 1-0.

Aresimi vs Struga Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - First League Predictions