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Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Tikveš Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Bashkimi Kumanovo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Tikveš

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.66 for Away, but form 1.40 vs 1.58 doesn't confirm

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.6%0-26.7%0-36.5%0-4+9.6%1 1-02.0%1-15.7%1-28.3%1-38.0%1-4+11.9%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.2%2-35.0%2-4+7.4%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.1%3-32.1%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 69.5% — — —

Over 2.5 68.8% — — —

Over 3.5 47.5% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 34.5% — — —

Away O1.5 69.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob64.3%

A 70% / xG 1.2-2.9 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–3 8.0%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 1–1 5.7%

#5 0–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bashkimi Kumanovo1.2

Tikveš2.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BASHKIMI KUMANOVO · PPG 1.40

TIKVEŠ · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

xG gap -1.66 for Away, but form 1.40 vs 1.58 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Bashkimi Kumanovo (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tikveš (A) 69.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bashkimi Kumanovo face Tikveš in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bashkimi Kumanovo a 14% chance, the draw 17% and Tikveš 70%, so Tikveš are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bashkimi Kumanovo and 2.9 for Tikveš (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bashkimi Kumanovo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.58 for Tikveš. This match finished 0-5.

Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Tikveš Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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