Leagues / ITALY / Serie D - Girone F

Serie D - Girone F

ITALY · 27 MATCHES TRACKED · 19 APR 2026 – 3 MAY 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 27 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

40.7%

1X2

11/27

59.3%

O/U 2.5

16/27

29.6%

BTTS

8/27

44.4%

Exact score

12/27

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

57.1%

Hit rate

4/7

1.57

Avg odds

-7.1%

ROI

-0.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.31 · -62.7% ROI

BTTS · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.74 · +19.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +80.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+80.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-44.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-10.5%

ROI

Match log

27 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 4 PICKS · 1 HIT · 3 MISS

3 MAY Unipomezia vs V. Senigallia — NO PICK 3–3 —3 MAY Termoli Calcio vs LAquila — NO PICK 1–1 —3 MAY San Marino C. vs Sammaurese BTTS 1–0 MISS 3 MAY Recanatese vs Fossombrone — NO PICK 2–0 —3 MAY Ancona 1905 vs Notaresco — NO PICK 1–1 —3 MAY Giulianova vs Ostia Mare — NO PICK 4–0 —3 MAY Chieti vs ACD Maceratese BTTS -11% 1–0 MISS 3 MAY Castelfidardo vs Sora BTTS 0–2 MISS 3 MAY Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo BTTS -8% 1–1 HIT

April 2026 // 5 PICKS · 2 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli Away 1–0 MISS 26 APR ACD Maceratese vs Giulianova BTTS -5% 1–1 HIT 26 APR Fossombrone vs Castelfidardo — NO PICK 3–1 —26 APR LAquila vs Ancona 1905 BTTS 0–0 MISS 26 APR Ostia Mare vs Termoli Calcio Home 1–0 HIT 26 APR Notaresco vs San Marino C. Home 1–2 MISS