ACD Maceratese vs Giulianova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 33 Stadio Helvia Recina· Macerata Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

ACD Maceratese PPG 1.69

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Giulianova PPG 1.00

Draw· +1.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

ACD Maceratese face Giulianova in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACD Maceratese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Giulianova 30%, so ACD Maceratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for ACD Maceratese and 1.0 for Giulianova (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACD Maceratese are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.00 for Giulianova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%

Odds: 2.35 EV: -11.2%

Draw 32.7%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +1.4%

Away 29.5%

Odds: 2.85 EV: -15.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% Odds: 4.00 -30.0%

BTTS 51.1% Odds: 1.85 -5.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

ACD Maceratese

1.19

Giulianova

0.97

Model SuggestionBTTS -5.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -5.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)