Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / ACD Maceratese vs Giulianova

ACD Maceratese vs Giulianova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

ACD Maceratese

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Giulianova

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-111.1%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.6%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.9%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 42.6% 2.35 -11.2%

Draw 32.7% 32.3% 3.10 +1.4%

Away win 29.5% 35.1% 2.85 -15.9%

Over 2.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 17.5% 25.0% 4.00 -30.0%

BTTS 51.1% 54.1% 1.85 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.1%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ACD Maceratese1.2

Giulianova1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ACD MACERATESE · PPG 1.69

GIULIANOVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

ACD Maceratese (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -11.2%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.4%

Giulianova (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

ACD Maceratese face Giulianova in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACD Maceratese a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Giulianova 30%, so ACD Maceratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for ACD Maceratese and 1.0 for Giulianova (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACD Maceratese are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.00 for Giulianova. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

ACD Maceratese vs Giulianova Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone F Predictions