Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / Ancona 1905 vs Notaresco

Ancona 1905 vs Notaresco Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Ancona 1905

PPG 2.19 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Notaresco

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.7%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.8%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 57.8% 1.73 -21.3%

Draw 32.2% 29.9% 3.35 +7.9%

Away win 22.4% 21.7% 4.60 +3.0%

Over 2.5 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

Over 3.5 17.6% 25.6% 3.90 -31.4%

BTTS 44.1% 51.3% 1.95 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.1%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ancona 19051.3

Notaresco0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ANCONA 1905 · PPG 2.19

NOTARESCO · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Ancona 1905 (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.3%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +7.9%

Notaresco (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ancona 1905 face Notaresco in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ancona 1905 a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Notaresco 22%, so Ancona 1905 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ancona 1905 and 0.9 for Notaresco (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ancona 1905 are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.81 for Notaresco. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Ancona 1905 vs Notaresco Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone F Predictions