Ancona 1905 vs Notaresco Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 34 Stadio del Conero· Ancona Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Ancona 1905 PPG 2.19

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Notaresco PPG 1.81

Draw· +7.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ancona 1905 face Notaresco in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ancona 1905 a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Notaresco 22%, so Ancona 1905 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ancona 1905 and 0.9 for Notaresco (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ancona 1905 are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.81 for Notaresco. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.5%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -21.3%

Draw 32.2%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +7.9%

Away 22.4%

Odds: 4.60 EV: +3.0%

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.0% Odds: 2.15 -20.4%

Over 3.5 17.6% Odds: 3.90 -31.4%

BTTS 44.1% Odds: 1.95 -14.0%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ancona 1905

1.32

Notaresco

0.86

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.81)