Recanatese vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 34 Nicola Tubaldi Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Recanatese PPG 1.06

2-0 MISS

Fossombrone PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Recanatese face Fossombrone in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recanatese a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Fossombrone 34%, so Fossombrone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Recanatese and 1.2 for Fossombrone (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recanatese are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Fossombrone. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.6%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 32.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 34.1%

Odds: — EV: —

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.5% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 20.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.8% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Recanatese

1.15

Fossombrone

1.16

Model SuggestionNo Bet  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)