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Recanatese vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Recanatese

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Fossombrone

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.5%0-26.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.6%2-17.6%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.6% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 34.1% — — —

Over 2.5 40.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.2% — — —

BTTS 48.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.8%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recanatese1.1

Fossombrone1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RECANATESE · PPG 1.06

FOSSOMBRONE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Recanatese (H) 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fossombrone (A) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Recanatese face Fossombrone in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recanatese a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Fossombrone 34%, so Fossombrone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Recanatese and 1.2 for Fossombrone (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recanatese are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Fossombrone. This match finished 2-0.

Recanatese vs Fossombrone Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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