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Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sammaurese

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Atletico Ascoli

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.7%0-210.7%0-38.7%0-4+9.4%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.7%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.4%2-13.5%2-24.2%2-33.4%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 61.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob57.8%

A 61% / xG 0.9-2.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 0–3 8.7%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sammaurese0.9

Atletico Ascoli2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMMAURESE · PPG 0.88

ATLETICO ASCOLI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Sammaurese (H) 14.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atletico Ascoli (A) 61.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sammaurese face Atletico Ascoli in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sammaurese a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Atletico Ascoli 61%, so Atletico Ascoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sammaurese and 2.4 for Atletico Ascoli (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sammaurese are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.50 for Atletico Ascoli. This match finished 1-0.

Sammaurese vs Atletico Ascoli Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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