Fossombrone vs Castelfidardo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 33 Stadio Comunale Fossombrone· Fossombrone Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Fossombrone PPG 1.44

3-1 MISS

Castelfidardo PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Fossombrone face Castelfidardo in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fossombrone a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Castelfidardo 20%, so Fossombrone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fossombrone and 0.5 for Castelfidardo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fossombrone are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.38 for Castelfidardo. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.5%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 31.1%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 20.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 13.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 48.3% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Fossombrone

1.43

Castelfidardo

0.53

Model SuggestionNo Bet  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=48.5%