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Fossombrone vs Castelfidardo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Fossombrone

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Castelfidardo

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-17.5%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-110.7%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-17.6%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-13.6%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.6% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.3%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.1%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fossombrone1.4

Castelfidardo0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FOSSOMBRONE · PPG 1.44

CASTELFIDARDO · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Win probability 1X2

Fossombrone (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Castelfidardo (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fossombrone face Castelfidardo in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fossombrone a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Castelfidardo 20%, so Fossombrone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fossombrone and 0.5 for Castelfidardo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fossombrone are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.38 for Castelfidardo. This match finished 3-1.

Fossombrone vs Castelfidardo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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