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Ostia Mare vs Termoli Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Ostia Mare

PPG 2.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Termoli Calcio

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=60.9%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-14.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.9%1-17.2%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.2%2-16.3%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.2%3-13.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-12.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% — — —

Draw 29.5% — — —

Away win 9.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 15.7% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.3 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 21.9%

#2 2–0 19.2%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 3–0 11.2%

#5 1–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostia Mare1.8

Termoli Calcio0.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTIA MARE · PPG 2.31

TERMOLI CALCIO · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs P(Home)=60.9%

Win probability 1X2

Ostia Mare (H) 60.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Termoli Calcio (A) 9.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostia Mare face Termoli Calcio in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostia Mare a 61% chance, the draw 30% and Termoli Calcio 10%, so Ostia Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ostia Mare and 0.3 for Termoli Calcio (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostia Mare are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.31 for Termoli Calcio. This match finished 1-0.

Ostia Mare vs Termoli Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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