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Chieti vs ACD Maceratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Chieti

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

ACD Maceratese

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.2%0-26.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.9%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.6%3-13.3%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 33.9% 2.95 -0.6%

Draw 30.5% 30.8% 3.25 -0.9%

Away win 35.7% 45.5% 2.20 -21.5%

Over 2.5 46.7% 54.1% 1.85 -13.6%

Over 3.5 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -21.9%

BTTS 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.7%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chieti1.3

ACD Maceratese1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIETI · PPG 1.31

ACD MACERATESE · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Chieti (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.6%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.9%

ACD Maceratese (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chieti face ACD Maceratese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chieti a 34% chance, the draw 31% and ACD Maceratese 36%, so ACD Maceratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chieti and 1.3 for ACD Maceratese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chieti are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.63 for ACD Maceratese. This match finished 1-0.

Chieti vs ACD Maceratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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