Chieti vs ACD Maceratese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 34 Stadio Guido Angelini· Chieti Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Chieti PPG 1.31

1-0 MISS

ACD Maceratese PPG 0.63

Home· -0.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chieti face ACD Maceratese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chieti a 34% chance, the draw 31% and ACD Maceratese 36%, so ACD Maceratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chieti and 1.3 for ACD Maceratese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chieti are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.63 for ACD Maceratese. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 33.7%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -0.6%

Draw 30.5%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -0.9%

Away 35.7%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -21.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.7% Odds: 1.85 -13.6%

Over 3.5 25.2% Odds: 3.10 -21.9%

BTTS 53.7% Odds: 1.65 -11.4%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chieti

1.25

ACD Maceratese

1.29

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.63)