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Notaresco vs San Marino C. Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Notaresco

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Marino C.

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.56)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-13.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.5%1-17.1%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.4%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-16.7%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-16.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 9.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 34.0% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 67% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notaresco2.4

San Marino C.0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTARESCO · PPG 1.31

SAN MARINO C. · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Notaresco (H) 67.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Marino C. (A) 9.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Notaresco face San Marino C. in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notaresco a 67% chance, the draw 23% and San Marino C. 10%, so Notaresco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Notaresco and 0.6 for San Marino C. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notaresco are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.56 for San Marino C.. This match finished 1-2.

Notaresco vs San Marino C. Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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