Giulianova vs Ostia Mare Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 34 Stadio Rubens Fadini· Giulianova Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Giulianova PPG 1.81

4-0 MISS

Ostia Mare PPG 2.53

Away· -2.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Giulianova face Ostia Mare in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giulianova a 23% chance, the draw 31% and Ostia Mare 45%, so Ostia Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Giulianova and 1.4 for Ostia Mare (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giulianova are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 2.53 for Ostia Mare. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 23.2%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -24.6%

Draw 31.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -2.7%

Away 45.4%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -2.4%

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.1% Odds: 2.15 -13.8%

Over 3.5 19.8% Odds: 3.85 -23.8%

BTTS 46.7% Odds: 1.83 -14.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Giulianova

0.92

Ostia Mare

1.37

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs Home GOOD (1.81)