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Giulianova vs Ostia Mare Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Giulianova

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Ostia Mare

PPG 2.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.9%0-29.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.3%2-15.9%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -24.6%

Draw 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Away win 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Over 2.5 40.1% 46.5% 2.15 -13.8%

Over 3.5 19.8% 26.0% 3.85 -23.8%

BTTS 46.7% 54.6% 1.83 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.7%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.9%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giulianova0.9

Ostia Mare1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIULIANOVA · PPG 1.81

OSTIA MARE · PPG 2.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs Home GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Giulianova (H) 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.6%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Ostia Mare (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Giulianova face Ostia Mare in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giulianova a 23% chance, the draw 31% and Ostia Mare 45%, so Ostia Mare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Giulianova and 1.4 for Ostia Mare (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giulianova are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 2.53 for Ostia Mare. This match finished 4-0.

Giulianova vs Ostia Mare Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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