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Castelfidardo vs Sora Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Castelfidardo

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sora

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.94)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.4%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.5%1-112.2%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% — — —

Draw 29.3% — — —

Away win 38.5% — — —

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 56.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.9%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castelfidardo1.3

Sora1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELFIDARDO · PPG 1.06

SORA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Castelfidardo (H) 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sora (A) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Castelfidardo face Sora in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castelfidardo a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Sora 39%, so Sora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Castelfidardo and 1.4 for Sora (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castelfidardo are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.94 for Sora. This match finished 0-2.

Castelfidardo vs Sora Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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