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Unipomezia vs V. Senigallia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Unipomezia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

V. Senigallia

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-111.1%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% — — —

Draw 32.2% — — —

Away win 32.0% — — —

Over 2.5 40.8% — — —

Over 3.5 20.4% — — —

BTTS 49.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unipomezia1.2

V. Senigallia1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIPOMEZIA · PPG 1.44

V. SENIGALLIA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Unipomezia (H) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

V. Senigallia (A) 32.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Unipomezia face V. Senigallia in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unipomezia a 36% chance, the draw 32% and V. Senigallia 32%, so Unipomezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Unipomezia and 1.1 for V. Senigallia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unipomezia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.56 for V. Senigallia. This match finished 3-3.

Unipomezia vs V. Senigallia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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