Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo

Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Atletico Ascoli

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Teramo

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-110.7%0-27.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.6%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.6%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.7%

Draw 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

Away win 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Over 2.5 46.0% 50.0% 2.00 -8.0%

Over 3.5 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -13.0%

BTTS 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Ascoli1.2

Teramo1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ASCOLI · PPG 1.88

TERAMO · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.88) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.31)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Ascoli (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.7%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.8%

Teramo (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Ascoli face Teramo in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Ascoli a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Teramo 38%, so Teramo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Ascoli and 1.3 for Teramo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Ascoli are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.31 for Teramo. This match finished 1-1.

Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone F Predictions