Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Italy - Serie D - Girone F Group F - 34 Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca· Ascoli Piceno Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Atletico Ascoli PPG 1.88

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Teramo PPG 2.31

Draw· -4.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Ascoli face Teramo in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Ascoli a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Teramo 38%, so Teramo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Ascoli and 1.3 for Teramo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Ascoli are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.31 for Teramo. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.4%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -13.7%

Draw 30.7%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -4.8%

Away 37.9%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -7.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.0% Odds: 2.00 -8.0%

Over 3.5 24.5% Odds: 3.55 -13.0%

BTTS 53.0% Odds: 1.73 -8.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atletico Ascoli

1.19

Teramo

1.33

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 30%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.88) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.31)