Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone F / San Marino C. vs Sammaurese

San Marino C. vs Sammaurese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

San Marino C.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sammaurese

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.7%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.3%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.5%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 55.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marino C.1.7

Sammaurese1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARINO C. · PPG 1.00

SAMMAURESE · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

San Marino C. (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sammaurese (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marino C. face Sammaurese in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marino C. a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Sammaurese 26%, so San Marino C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for San Marino C. and 1.2 for Sammaurese (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marino C. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.31 for Sammaurese. This match finished 1-0.

San Marino C. vs Sammaurese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone F Predictions