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LAquila vs Ancona 1905 Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Group F - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

LAquila

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ancona 1905

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.9%0-28.8%0-34.7%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.0%2-16.4%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% — — —

Draw 29.8% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.6% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.8%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LAquila1.1

Ancona 19051.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAQUILA · PPG 2.00

ANCONA 1905 · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.44)

Win probability 1X2

LAquila (H) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ancona 1905 (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

LAquila face Ancona 1905 in Italy - Serie D - Girone F on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LAquila a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Ancona 1905 42%, so Ancona 1905 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for LAquila and 1.6 for Ancona 1905 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LAquila are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.44 for Ancona 1905. This match finished 0-0.

LAquila vs Ancona 1905 Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone F

Match Preview & Prediction

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