Leagues / ITALY / Serie C - Girone C
Serie C - Girone C
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 32 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
37.5%
1X2
12/32
65.6%
O/U 2.5
21/32
59.4%
BTTS
19/32
53.1%
Exact score
17/32
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
8/16
1.89
Avg odds
-6.3%
ROI
-1.0u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=10 30.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -48.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.07 · +106.7% ROI
BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +80.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 3.40 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-31.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+5.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
71%
Hit
+40.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 6 PICKS · 4 HIT · 2 MISS
29 AUG Sorrento vs Crotone — NO PICK 1–0 —29 AUG Foggia vs Salernitana — NO PICK 1–1 —29 AUG Cosenza vs Potenza Over 2.5 1–2 HIT29 AUG SS Monopoli vs Catania — NO PICK 2–0 —28 AUG Cavese vs Audace Cerignola — NO PICK 3–1 —28 AUG Casarano vs Giugliano Over 2.5 +25% 4–3 HIT24 AUG Salernitana vs Sorrento Home -16% 1–2 MISS24 AUG Crotone vs Foggia Home +18% 0–1 MISS24 AUG Team Altamura vs SS Monopoli — NO PICK 1–0 —22 AUG Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza BTTS 3–1 HIT21 AUG Potenza vs Casarano Over 2.5 +25% 4–1 HIT