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Crotone vs Foggia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:00

Crotone

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Foggia

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.5%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-19.3%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 54.1% 1.85 +18.0%

Draw 21.1% 30.3% 3.30 -18.2%

Away win 15.2% 25.6% 3.90 -24.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.9% 3.35 +5.5%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 57.6% 51.8% 1.93 +11.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 31.3% 3.20 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crotone2.0

Foggia0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CROTONE · PPG 1.69

FOGGIA · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Crotone (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +18.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -18.2%

Foggia (A) 15.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crotone face Foggia in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crotone a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Foggia 15%, so Crotone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Crotone and 0.7 for Foggia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crotone are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.77 for Foggia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Crotone vs Foggia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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