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Casarano vs Giugliano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Casarano

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Giugliano

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+25.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.3%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.4%1-110.1%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.3%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

Draw 23.8% 34.5% 2.90 -18.6%

Away win 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 26.7% 3.75 +37.6%

BTTS 55.0% 57.1% 1.75 -3.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 44.4% 2.25 +26.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.1%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casarano1.9

Giugliano1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CASARANO · PPG 1.72

GIUGLIANO · PPG 0.97

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Casarano (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.6%

Giugliano (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casarano face Giugliano in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casarano a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Giugliano 29%, so Casarano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Casarano and 1.2 for Giugliano (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casarano are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 0.97 for Giugliano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.6%. This match finished 4-3.

Casarano vs Giugliano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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