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SS Monopoli vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

SS Monopoli

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Catania

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.0%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 26.0% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.9% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 31.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SS Monopoli1.4

Catania1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SS MONOPOLI · PPG 1.66

CATANIA · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SS Monopoli (H) 43.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Catania (A) 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SS Monopoli face Catania in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SS Monopoli a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Catania 26%, so SS Monopoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SS Monopoli and 1.0 for Catania (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SS Monopoli are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.42 for Catania. This match finished 2-0.

SS Monopoli vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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