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Sorrento vs Crotone Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Sorrento

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Crotone

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.5%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.5%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 12.0%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.5

Crotone1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 1.34

CROTONE · PPG 1.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Crotone (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Crotone in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Crotone 25%, so Sorrento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sorrento and 1.0 for Crotone (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.45 for Crotone. This match finished 1-0.

Sorrento vs Crotone Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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