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Cosenza vs Potenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Cosenza

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Potenza

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.4%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 48.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 1–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cosenza1.6

Potenza1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COSENZA · PPG 2.07

POTENZA · PPG 1.01

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cosenza (H) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Potenza (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cosenza face Potenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cosenza a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Potenza 30%, so Cosenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cosenza and 1.1 for Potenza (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cosenza are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.01 for Potenza. This match finished 1-2.

Cosenza vs Potenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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