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Cavese vs Audace Cerignola Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Cavese

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Audace Cerignola

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.2%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Away win 36.1% 36.4% 2.75 -0.7%

Over 2.5 46.8% 43.5% 2.30 +7.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 37.0% 2.70 +0.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 34.7% 2.88 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cavese1.3

Audace Cerignola1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAVESE · PPG 1.38

AUDACE CERIGNOLA · PPG 1.31

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cavese (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Audace Cerignola (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cavese face Audace Cerignola in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cavese a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Audace Cerignola 36%, so Cavese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cavese and 1.2 for Audace Cerignola (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cavese are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Audace Cerignola. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Cavese vs Audace Cerignola Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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