Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Altamura vs Casarano

Altamura vs Casarano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Altamura

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Casarano

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.5%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.8%1-111.2%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -3.8%

Away win 25.4% 29.4% 3.40 -13.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 28.6% 3.50 +12.7%

BTTS 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altamura1.7

Casarano1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTAMURA · PPG 1.33

CASARANO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Altamura (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.8%

Casarano (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altamura face Casarano in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altamura a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Casarano 25%, so Altamura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Altamura and 1.1 for Casarano (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altamura are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Casarano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Altamura vs Casarano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone C Predictions