Altamura vs Casarano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 38 Stadio Comunale Tonino D'Angelo· Altamura Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:00

Altamura PPG 1.33

0-4 MISS

Casarano PPG 1.00

Over2.5· +18.0% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Altamura face Casarano in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altamura a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Casarano 25%, so Altamura are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Altamura and 1.1 for Casarano (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altamura are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Casarano. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.3%

Odds: 1.95 EV: -9.7%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -3.8%

Away 25.4%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -13.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% Odds: 3.50 +12.7%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.80 +5.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Altamura

1.72

Casarano

1.14

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +18.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)