Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Potenza vs Casarano

Potenza vs Casarano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 19:00

Potenza

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Casarano

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+25.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.3%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Draw 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Away win 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 47.6% 2.10 +25.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 26.0% 3.85 +40.9%

BTTS 57.2% 54.1% 1.85 +5.8%

Home O1.5 54.9% 44.4% 2.25 +23.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 32.3% 3.10 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Potenza1.9

Casarano1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

POTENZA · PPG 1.72

CASARANO · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Potenza (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +12.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Casarano (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Potenza face Casarano in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Potenza a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Casarano 24%, so Potenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Potenza and 1.1 for Casarano (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Potenza are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.25 for Casarano. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +54.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Potenza vs Casarano Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie C - Girone C Predictions