Atalanta B vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 38 Stadio Comunale· Caravaggio Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:00

Atalanta B PPG 1.28

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Catania PPG 1.39

Home· +18.1% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta B face Catania in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta B a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Catania 31%, so Atalanta B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atalanta B and 1.2 for Catania (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta B are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.39 for Catania. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +18.1%

Draw 32.2%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +7.9%

Away 30.9%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -36.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 22.9% Odds: 2.95 -32.4%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.60 -15.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta B

1.22

Catania

1.22

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.39)