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Atalanta B vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Atalanta B

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Catania

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.7%0-26.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.6%1-113.0%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.9%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 31.3% 3.20 +18.1%

Draw 32.2% 29.9% 3.35 +7.9%

Away win 30.9% 48.8% 2.05 -36.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 55.6% 1.80 -10.0%

Over 3.5 22.9% 33.9% 2.95 -32.4%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta B1.2

Catania1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA B · PPG 1.28

CATANIA · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta B (H) 36.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +18.1%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +7.9%

Catania (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -36.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta B face Catania in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta B a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Catania 31%, so Atalanta B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atalanta B and 1.2 for Catania (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta B are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.39 for Catania. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Atalanta B vs Catania Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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