Today / Italy - Serie C - Girone C / Benevento vs A. Cerignola

Benevento vs A. Cerignola Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 38 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:00

Benevento

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

A. Cerignola

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.1%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-13.8%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.3%2-16.4%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-17.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.3%4+-113.7%4+-23.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 69.4% 1.44 +3.4%

Draw 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.0%

Away win 7.2% 15.6% 6.40 -53.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 59.9% 1.67 +1.0%

Over 3.5 54.6% 38.2% 2.62 +43.0%

BTTS 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 72% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.5%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 4–0 10.4%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benevento3.3

A. Cerignola0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BENEVENTO · PPG 2.50

A. CERIGNOLA · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.22) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Benevento (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +3.4%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -16.0%

A. Cerignola (A) 7.2%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -53.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benevento face A. Cerignola in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benevento a 72% chance, the draw 21% and A. Cerignola 7%, so Benevento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Benevento and 0.6 for A. Cerignola (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benevento are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.22 for A. Cerignola. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Benevento vs A. Cerignola Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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